Working Papers del DiSIA
The Age-It Family Demography Survey (Age-It FDS)
Daniele Vignoli, Elisa Brini, Raffaele Guetto, Giammarco Alderotti, Andrea Ballerini, Marco Cozzani, Alessandro Gallo, Carlos J. Gil-Hernandez, Maria Francesca Morabito, Elena Pirani, Davide Soldati, Francesco Tata, Valentina Tocchioni
Introduction
Italy has recently witnessed profound transformations in family demographics, including delayed union formation, rising cohabitation, increasing relationship instability, and postponed parenthood. These shifts have occurred alongside persistently lowest-low fertility rates and a growing use of medically assisted reproduction (MAR). Existing Italian datasets do not simultaneously capture these new family dynamics, nor do they address other emerging themes such as online dating patterns, MAR experiences and trajectories, and the forward-looking narratives through which individuals interpret uncertain futures. The Age-It Family Demography Survey (Age-It FDS), conducted within Spoke 1 of the Research Programme Age-It, is specifically designed to fill this gap.
Methods
The Age-It FDS is a cross-sectional, quota-controlled survey of 9,004 individuals aged 18–45 residing in Italy. Sampling followed a stratified design with quotas based on the intersection of age groups, sex, and macro-area (at NUTS-1 level), as well as independent quotas based on municipality size, educational attainment, and citizenship. Data were collected between May and July 2025 using a mixed-mode design (CAPI, CATI, CAWI), after extensive questionnaire design, piloting, and interviewer training.
Results
The dataset contains detailed union and childbearing histories, information on partners’ characteristics across successive unions, a family complexity module, online dating, and an extensive module on MAR. A key innovation is the inclusion of narratives-of-the-future measures, which record expectations regarding economic (in)security, employment, housing, environmental risks, political stability, and social cohesion. Data quality is supported by computerised range and consistency checks, dedicated try-out phases, and ex-post validation, including recalls and examination of non-response patterns.
Conclusion
The Age-It FDS provides an unprecedented resource for studying contemporary fertility and family dynamics in Italy. Data are stored at the Department of Statistics, Computer Science, Applications “G. Parenti” (DiSIA), University of Florence, available upon reasonable request to the corresponding author for non-commercial, scientific purposes.'
Working Papers del Dipartimento
Polarization and Flexibility in Attitudes Toward Assisted Reproduction: A Vignette Study
Daniele Vignoli, Valentina Tocchioni, Ester Lazzari, Marco Cozzani
While delayed parenthood and medical advancements have increased the utilization of assisted reproductive technologies (ART) across Europe, existing studies largely treat infertility as a medical issue, overlooking its socially constructed nature. This gap is problematic in light of the growing societal and political debates around ART, which resemble other polarized, partisan ethical issues. This paper examines attitudes toward ART, with a focus on Italy—a country traditionally known for conservative family norms, yet where ART use has become more widespread in recent years. We employ a factorial survey experiment within a nationally representative, quota-controlled survey in which respondents evaluate vignettes describing fictitious couples facing infertility and rate, on a 0–10 scale, whether they should pursue ART. Descriptive results reveal polarized attitudes toward ART use: approximately 15% of responses in our sample are strongly in favor, while about 10% are strongly opposed. Nonetheless, our findings also indicate that certain characteristics of the fictitious couples—such as having tried to conceive for over a year and advanced maternal age—positively influence support for ART. In contrast, heterologous treatments, going abroad, and being already a parent are generally associated with more negative attitudes. By demonstrating that views on ART are both polarized and fluid, shaped by the socio-demographic circumstances surrounding each couple, this study provides a foundation for future research on ART in contemporary aging societies.
Working Papers del Dipartimento
Students enrolled in STEM disciplines in Italy: The role played by field of study and gender in course switching
Valentina Tocchioni, Maria Francesca Morabito, Alessandra Petrucci
Ongoing technological change has led to a steadily growing demand for Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) graduates worldwide. Not only do STEM disciplines have a low attractiveness in some contexts, such as in the U.S. and Italy; it is also a matter of persistence in pursuing STEM studies, affected by high rates of course switches in several countries. Using administrative microdata from the Italian Ministry for Universities and Research and selecting students enrolled in a STEM discipline between 2010 and 2014, our aim is to explore how the student’s gender, the field of study, and the gender composition of the course can help identify at-risk students likely to switch away from STEM fields, often delaying and/or compromising their academic journeys. Overall, the findings show that the propensity to abandon STEM programmes is very high, especially among students enrolled in Soft STEM fields. We find that (female and male) students in female-dominated programmes tend to have a lower probability of switching to enroll in another STEM course compared to those in male-dominated programmes. These findings emphasise that institutional contexts and course-level gender composition matter for STEM persistence, calling for university-level strategies aimed at fostering more inclusive and supportive learning environments.
Working Papers del Dipartimento
Value Change and the New Wave of Fertility Postponement in Western Europe
Oskar Lindström, Raffaele Guetto, Daniele Vignoli
Since 2010, Western Europe has experienced a renewed wave of fertility postponement, contributing to declining fertility rates and rising childlessness. Although multiple explanations have been proposed, the role of ideational factors remains underexplored. This study examines whether value change helps explain contemporary fertility postponement, drawing on the framework of the Second Demographic Transition. We apply Schwartz’s Theory of Basic Human Values to investigate trends in Openness-to-Change and Conservation among women of childbearing age, assessing both aggregate changes over time and individual-level associations with having entered parenthood. Results show that these values are strongly associated with individual propensities to enter parenthood; however, their stability over time suggests they do not underlie the recent fertility postponement trend. Moreover, the selective role of values for entry into parenthood appears unchanged. Some regional heterogeneity emerges, with Southern Europe showing value shifts that may contribute to fertility postponement, though their overall influence appears limited. We conclude that contemporary fertility decline is unlikely to be driven by broad shifts in SDT-related values.
Working Papers del Dipartimento
Likely to Be Single, Likely to Search Online. The Negative Educational Gradient in Online Dating in Italy
Francesco Tata, Daniele Vignoli, Raffaele Guetto
The diffusion of digital technologies has transformed partnership dynamics. Online dating has become a common and socially accepted route for partner search and partnership formation. However, research on this phenomenon remains constrained by limited data availability. Examining the characteristics of online daters is essential for understanding their implications for the structure of the online dating market and processes of union formation. Building on a dual-selection perspective, this study investigates the stratification of online dating in Italy while also accounting for the stratification of singlehood. It aims to determine whether single online daters constitute a selected group in terms of socio-demographic factors such as education, age, and gender. The analysis draws on novel quota-controlled survey data (N = 7,168) that provide detailed information on online dating behaviour. It examines selection into online dating and singlehood, considering the use of multiple platforms and the frequency of online partner search. The findings emphasise a strong negative educational gradient in both singlehood and online dating. Individuals with low educational attainment are more likely to be single and to engage in online dating when single, across all age groups considered and with limited gender differences. This study offers one of the first accounts of the socio-demographic stratification of online dating in Italy. By connecting online dating and partnership formation perspectives, it provides evidence of a dual selection process – into singlehood and online partner search – profoundly shaped by education. It ultimately shows that online dating mirrors inequalities observed in offline dating markets.
Working Papers del Dipartimento
Climate change narratives and first births in the UK
Ewa Weychert, Daniele Vignoli, Anna Matysiak, Dorota Celińska-Kopczyńska
This study investigates how climate news exposure relates to first-birth outcomes in the United Kingdom. Drawing on theories of imagined futures, individualized political engagement, and eco-anxiety, we examine whether and how exposure to climate-related media coverage is related to fertility behavior. We construct a novel index of climate news coverage using text mining and link it to individual-level longitudinal data from the UK Understanding Society survey. Results show that high exposure to climate news is associated with a lower probability of first birth, but only among individuals who express strong pro-environmental attitudes. In contrast, political identity and perceived long-term climate risk do not significantly moderate this relationship. These findings suggest that climate news coverage, which we use as a proxy for climate change narratives, is associated with fertility in a non-uniform way, shaped by moral and emotional mechanisms linked to current environmental concern. This study highlights the role of media-driven imaginaries in shaping life course decisions and contributes new evidence on the demographic implications of climate change discourse.
Working Papers del Dipartimento
Spatially conditioned Multi-Directional Composite Indicators: assessing performance and improvement directions
Elisa Fusco, Francesco Vidoli, Matheus Pereira Libório
This paper presents an original methodology for constructing compos- ite indicators capable of exploring potential improvements for each unit and each simple indicator with respect to a local peer group. From a technical standpoint, the concept of "spatial conditioning" is incorporated into the Multi-directional Benefit of the Doubt model. The model accounts for spa- tial conditions, such as geographical or contextual characteristics, to adapt to local specificity, thereby enabling comparisons among neighboring units and local benchmarks, rather than global ones, avoiding misleading policy recommendations. This methodological advancement enables the separation of individual units’ performance and their specific directions for improvement from the contributions of their respective territories, enhancing the precision and relevance of the indicators for each unit analyzed. Empirical validation is conducted using simulated data and the ISTAT Equitable and Sustainable Well-being dataset for Italian provinces, demonstrating the model’s ability to produce context-sensitive evaluations and actionable insights.
Working Papers del Dipartimento
The (low) productivity roots of lowest-low fertility: Evidence from Italy
Thea Jansen, Alessandra Faggian, Daniele Vignoli
This paper investigates whether productivity growth in micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (mSMEs) is associated with fertility in Italy, a context characterized by very low fertility and a productive structure dominated by mSMEs. While existing research links economic conditions to fertility, most studies rely on aggregate indicators or labor-market shocks and pay limited attention to the role of local productive structures, such as firm size. Exploiting highly granular municipal-level data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics, we leverage an instrumental variable strategy based on historical soil suitability for wheat cultivation, to rule out potential endogeneity concerns. Our results show a positive, sizable and statistically significant relationship between productivity and fertility, with a €1,000 increase in value added per worker being associated with a 2% increase in fertility the following year. Our findings suggest that productivity-enhancing policies may generate indirect demographic and social returns, in addition to their economic benefits.
Working Papers del Dipartimento
RE-EXAMINING INCOME AND FERTILITY INTENTIONS WITHIN COUPLES FROM LINKED ADMINISTRATIVE AND SURVEY DATA IN ITALY
Lucia Coppola, Eleonora Meli, Daniele Vignoli, Agnese Vitali
How couples'economic resources shape fertility intentions remains a central question in demographic research. This study examines the role of household income, partners' relative earnings, and employment arrangements in shaping short-term fertility intentions, using Italy as a case study. By linking survey data on fertility intentions with administrative income records, we provide a unique couple-level perspective on both absolute and relative economic resources. The findings reveal marked differences by parity and gender. Among childless women, higher household income and greater economic independence are associated with stronger intentions to become mothers. Among mothers, however, intentions to have another child are lower in dual-earner couples than in single-breadwinner—or even jobless—couples, suggesting that work-family reconciliation and time constraints may outweigh the benefits of dual employment. By contrast, neither childless men nor fathers show systematic differences in fertility intentions by employment arrangements or the distribution of earnings within the couple. Once household income is taken into account, who earns the income matters little for men's fertility intentions. These findings show that absolute and relative economic resources shape fertility intentions in distinct ways. They underscore the importance of household income while challenging both the specialization hypothesis of the New Home Economics and traditional gender-role expectations.
Working Papers del Dipartimento
Ultimo aggiornamento
9 luglio 2026