Working Papers del DiSIA
Economic Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe: Narratives of the Future
Daniele Vignoli, Raffaele Guetto, Giacomo Bazzani, Elena Pirani, Alessandra Minello
BACKGROUND: In the last decade fertility rates have declined in most European countries, and explanations have tended to focus on the rise of economic uncertainty after the Great Recession. The empirical demographic tradition operationalized the forces of economic uncertainty through objective indicators of individuals’ labor market situation; for example, holding a temporary contract or being unemployed. However, contemporary European fertility trends are not comprehensively captured by these traditional indicators and statistical models, because fertility decisions are not a mere “statistical shadow of the past”.
OBJECTIVE: We propose a novel framework on economic uncertainty and fertility. This framework proffers that the conceptualization and operationalization of economic uncertainty needs to take into account that people use works of imagination, producing their own “narrative of the future” – namely, imagined futures embedded in social elements and their interactions. Narratives of the future allow people to act according to or in spite of the uncertainty they face, irrespective of structural constraints and their subjective perceptions.
CONTRIBUTION: In this reflection we suggest that the focus of contemporary fertility studies should partly shift to assessing how people build their narratives of the future. To this end, we propose several methodological strategies to empirically assess the role of narratives for fertility decisions. Future studies should also take into account that personal narratives are shaped by the “shared narratives” produced by several agents of socialization, such as parents and peers, as well as by the narratives produced by the media and other powerful opinion formers.
Working Papers del Dipartimento
In medio stat filius. The relationship between time preferences and fertility
Daniela Bellani, Bruno Arpino, Daniele Vignoli
OBJECTIVE: Time discounting preference (TDP) is a trait indicating to what extent individuals prefer immediate but lower benefits versus future but higher benefits. It can also be interpreted as the inclination to be more or less impatient. TDP has been found to influence different human decisions, including health behaviour and schooling investments. This study is the first that explores whether this trait represents a determinant of fertility.
BACKGROUND: Fertility decisions, like all life actions, imply a balancing of anticipated costs and benefits the expectations for which are formed under uncertainty. Fertility research has addressed a multitude of ‘backward’ correlates (socio-demographic or biological factors) of fertility decisions. Yet, the role of ‘forward’ factors, such as TDP, has never been explored.
METHOD: Unique data from the panel component of the Survey of Household Income and Wealth carried out by the Bank of Italy every two years were used. We applied logistic regression models using a question included in the 2004, 2008, 2010 and 2012 waves to examine whether, net of backward factors, impatience affects first (N=760) and second (N=1284) parity progressions.
RESULTS: Findings indicate an inversed U-shape relationship between impatience and the probability of the transition to the first and the second child. For very patient and for very impatient individuals the probability of having a child is lower than for those with intermediate levels of impatience.
CONCLUSION: The empirical findings point to the need to consider TDP in fertility research so as to gain a more complete understanding of fertility behaviour.
Working Papers del Dipartimento
Economic Complexity and Fertility. Insights from a Low Fertility Country
Niccolò Innocenti, Daniele Vignoli, Luciana Lazzeretti
This paper analyses the relationship between a new indicator of economic context, economic complexity (EC), and fertility change in Italian provinces for the period 2006–2015. We hypothesise that the level of EC is associated with fertility because it captures the capacity of a territory to innovate, grow, and create job options. The results illustrate a clear positive association between EC and fertility change across Italian provinces for the period considered, net of traditional fertility predictors. Those areas that stand at the frontiers of EC are also more likely to dominate and adapt to the negative consequences of globalisation.
Working Papers del Dipartimento
Higher Parental Socioeconomic Status Accelerates Sexual Debut in Italy
Raffaele Guetto, Daniele Vignoli, Alessio Lachi
The onset of the transition to adulthood starts with first sexual experiences. In this paper we analyzed how Italian university students’ timing and type (protected or unprotected) of sexual debut are influenced by parental socioeconomic status. By applying event-history techniques to unique data from the two releases of the Sexual and Emotional Life of Youths survey (2000 and 2017), we found a clear accelerating effect of higher parental SES on the sexual debut of their children. These results hold controlling for Second Demographic Transition-related characteristics of the family of origin. Our results contradict the well-established, North American- and Anglo-Saxon-driven finding that children with higher parental SES postpone their sexual debut. We argue and prove that the overall positive effect of parental education on children’s risk of sexual debut in Italy is due to the limited diffusion of unprotected sexual relations during adolescence and young adulthood compared to North American and other Anglo-Saxon settings.
Working Papers del Dipartimento
Are intergenerational relationships responsible for more COVID-19 cases?
A cautionary tale of available empirical evidence
Bruno Arpino, Valeria Bordone, Marta Pasqualini
The SARS-CoV-2 virus, originated in Wuhan (China) at the end of 2019, rapidly spread in more than 100 countries. Researchers in different fields have been working on finding explanations for the unequal impact of the virus, and deaths from the associated disease (COVID-19), in different geographical areas. Demographers and other social scientists, have hinted at the importance of demographic factors, such as age structure and intergenerational relationships. The goal of this article is to reflect on the possible link between intergenerational relationships and COVID-19 cases in a critical way. We show that with available aggregate data it is not possible to draw robust evidence to support such a link. In fact, at the country-level higher prevalence of intergenerational co-residence and contacts is broadly positively associated with number of COVID-19 cases (per 100,000 persons), but the opposite is generally true at the sub-national level. While this inconsistent evidence neither demonstrates the existence nor the inexistence of a causal link between intergenerational relationships and the prevalence of COVID-19 cases, we warn against simplistic interpretations of the available data which suffer from many shortcomings. Only retrospective individual level data will provide robust evidence on the role of intergenerational ties. We conclude arguing that intergenerational relationships are not only about physical contacts between family members. From a theoretical point of view, different forms of intergenerational relationships may have causal effects of opposite sign on the diffusion of COVID-19. Policies devoted at fighting the spread of COVID-19 should also take into account that intergenerational ties are a source of instrumental and emotional support, which may favor compliance to the lockdown and "phase-2" restrictions and may buffer their negative consequences on mental health.
Working Papers del Dipartimento
A Dynamic Conditional Approach to Portfolio Weights Forecasting
Fabrizio Cipollini, Giampiero Gallo, Alessandro Palandri
We build the time series of optimal realized portfolio weights from high-frequency data and we suggest a novel Dynamic Conditional Weights (DCW) model for their dynamics. DCW is benchmarked against popular model-based and model-free specifications in terms of weights forecasts and portfolio allocations. Next to portfolio variance, certainty equivalent and turnover, we introduce the break-even transaction costs as an additional measure that identifies the range of transaction costs for which one allocation is preferred to another. By comparing minimum-variance portfolios built on the components of the Dow Jones 30 Index, the proposed DCW overall attains the best allocations with respect to the measures considered, for any degree of risk-aversion, transaction costs and exposure.
Working Papers del Dipartimento
First Union Formation in Australia: Actual Constraints or Perceived Uncertainty?
Danilo Bolano, Daniele Vignoli
The present study adds to the growing literature on union formation in case of uncertainty by proposing an operational distinction between actual constraints and perceived uncertainty regarding the future. Using longitudinal data from 17 waves of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey, we examine the effect of the type of contract, by empirically disentangling objective, actual constraints, their subjective perception, and perceived uncertainty about the future on the hazard of entry into the first union. Our results corroborate the notion that, alone, objective measures give only a partial and possibly inaccurate perspective: the specter of the future also matters. Relevant differences in selection into first union are observed according to the level of uncertainty faced by individuals. Moreover, our findings reveal a nonlinear relationship between uncertainty and family formation. Faced by either very low or very high uncertainty, individuals who are employed tend to invest their resources in family formation—a trend which may well be respectively encouraged or discouraged by the state of the labor market. With mid-levels of uncertainty, individuals may instead prefer to invest into the labor market and postpone union formation.
Working Papers del Dipartimento
Antecedents of 'Grey Divorces' in Europe: The Role of Children and Grandchildren
Giammarco Alderotti, Cecilia Tomassini, Daniele Vignoli
So-called 'grey divorces' – i.e. voluntary union dissolutions after age 50 – have received growing attention in the press as well as non-academic discourse. Nonetheless, while there is a vast amount of research on the socio-demographic, health-related and economic consequences of divorce at older ages, few studies have analysed the trends and correlates of grey divorces. Moreover, these studies are largely limited to the United States. This paper aims to fill this gap using data from six waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). We document the antecedents of divorce in later life across Europe, shedding light on a rare but demographically and sociologically interesting phenomenon. Our results show that the determinants of grey divorce largely do not differ from the classical antecedents of divorce early in life. However, we also detected and discuss a few determinants specific to grey divorces, such as the presence of children and grandchildren.
Working Papers del Dipartimento
Testing fixed and random effects in linear mixed models
Marco Barnabani
In linear mixed models the selection of fixed and random effects using a testing hypothesis approach brings up several problems. In this paper, we consider the so called boundary problem and the confounding impact of effects from one set of coefficient in the other set. These problems are addressed by defining two test statistics based on ordinary least squares obtained by dividing two quadratic forms, one that contains the effect and another that does not. As a result, the test statistics are sufficiently general, easy to compute, with known finite sample properties. The test on randomness has a known exact distribution under the null and alternative hypothesis, the test on fixed effect is approximated by a noncentral F-distribution. Because of its importance in the selection variable approach, the goodness-of-approximation is examined in-depth in final simulations.
Working Papers del Dipartimento
Italian PhD students at the borders: The relationship between family background and international mobility
Valentina Tocchioni, Alessandra Petrucci
Previous literature has suggested that PhD students’ mobility has become a fundamental step during doctoral studies, both for training purposes and for creating transnational research networks. In recent years, there has been a significant increase in migration of highly educated and highly skilled Italians. Most studies concentrate on employment-related characteristics of researchers’ and scientists’ mobility, largely neglecting other topics, such as family background characteristics of those who decide to study and go abroad. Using the Istat Survey on occupational conditions of PhD holders conducted in 2014 and 2018 in Italy, along with modelling using multinomial logistic regression analyses, we aim to investigate the relationship between family background characteristics and mobility during PhD studies according to different types of international stay. Our results show that both parental education and mother’s economic activity are related to the propensity for studying abroad among PhD candidates, whereas father’s social class seems to have a lower impact on this decision. The gap in doctoral mobility among PhD students with respect to socio-economic status seems also to vary according to the different types of stay abroad. Overall, our findings intend to shed light on potential disparities related to studying abroad among PhD students and their links to family background, which may have future repercussions on students’ occupational prospects.
Working Papers del Dipartimento
Narratives of the future shape fertility in uncertain times. Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Raffaele Guetto, Giacomo Bazzani, Daniele Vignoli
The sociological and demographic literatures have widely demonstrated that fertility decisions are shaped by individuals’ previous life experiences and socioeconomic status – the “shadow of the past”. However, rising uncertainty in contemporary societies necessitates an analytical framework that acknowledges the influence of the future in the fertility decision-making process. Based on the Narrative Framework, we argue that personal narratives of the future, and their constitutive elements of expectations and imaginaries – the “shadow of the future” – represent crucial drivers of fertility intentions under conditions of uncertainty. Our arguments are tested empirically by exploiting the exogenous uncertainty shock provided by the COVID-19 pandemic, and unique data we collected during the Italian lockdown. Results suggest that, because of COVID-induced uncertainty, subjective perceptions and personal narratives of the future – also shaped by media shared narratives – gain the upper hand over the shadow of the past in influencing fertility intentions. In addition, we provide evidence of a causal impact of shared narratives of the future on fertility intentions through an online experiment simulating a “real” exposition of the respondents to a new media narrative on the expected length of the emergency.
Working Papers del Dipartimento
Ultimo aggiornamento 17 dicembre 2020.